The ambassadors of Lebanon and Israel are set to join United States-brokered talks in Washington, DC, with Lebanese authorities seeking to secure a ceasefire, while Israel’s goal is the disarmament of the Hezbollah group.
Averell Schmidt, professor of government, whose research examines the politics of international cooperation, human rights, and political violence, says the key deliverable is that talks are even happening.
“Lebanon has long requested talks with Israel; Israel has long resisted. The current hostilities are different, because they could undermine U.S. negotiations with Iran. Israel's participation in U.S.-mediated negotiations signals sensitivity to U.S. interests and suggests U.S. leverage over Israel.
“The U.S. has a strong interest in brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, because it wants to prevent Israel's actions in Lebanon from spoiling its ceasefire with Iran. However, it is unclear how an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire could shape reality on the ground in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese government lacks the capacity to control Hezbollah and Israel sees a short-term window of opportunity to weaken Hezbollah. A ceasefire would be very fragile.
“U.S. policymakers likely believe brokering negotiations between Israel and Lebanon serves two purposes: signaling to Iran that the U.S. is restraining Israel while allowing Israel to continue fighting Hezbollah during talks. This approach temporarily addresses both Israeli and Iranian concerns with the Iran ceasefire, but neither side will likely remain satisfied for long."
