Freeing Ukraine to hit targets deep in Russia likely won’t change tide of war

The Biden Administration is facing increasing pressure to loosen restrictions that would allow Ukrainian forces to strike deeper into Russia. The lobbying effort is being led by President Zelensky personally during this week’s UN General Assembly meeting.

David Silbey is a professor of history at Cornell University, specializing in military history, defense policy and battlefield analysis. He says while it might benefit Ukraine to hit more Russian targets with missiles, in a strict military sense it probably wouldn’t change much.

Silbey says: “It might make it more difficult for the Russians to launch their own attacks, but it wouldn’t stop them.  

“The center of gravity of this conflict is still in the east of Ukraine and Ukrainian disadvantages (shortage of personnel and weaponry) aren’t really going to be fixed by deep strikes inside of Russia. Leaders, including many Europeans, want to find solutions to this and the restrictions on strikes are an easy one to focus on, even if it’s not one that will have all that much effect.

“On the political side, the Ukrainians might hope that the effect of attacks inside Russia would turn the Russians against Putin, but the historical evidence is that the reverse usually happens, which is a ‘rally around the flag effect’.”

For interviews contact Adam Allington, cell (231) 620-7180, adam.allington@cornell.edu.